Multidimensional Ellsberg

نویسندگان

  • Kfir Eliaz
  • Pietro Ortoleva
چکیده

The classical Ellsberg experiment presents individuals with a choice problem in which the probability of winning a prize is unknown (ambiguous). In this paper we study how individuals make choices between gambles in which the ambiguity is in di↵erent dimensions: the winning probability, the amount of the prize and the payment date, and many combinations. While the decision-theoretic models accommodate a rich variety of behaviors, we present experimental evidence that points at one systematic behavioral pattern: (i) no ambiguity is preferred to ambiguity on any single dimension and to ambiguity on multiple dimensions, and (ii) “correlated” ambiguity on multiple dimensions is preferred to ambiguity on any single dimension. JEL Classification: C91, D11, D81.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

A Quantum Cognition Analysis of the Ellsberg Paradox

The expected utility hypothesis is one of the foundations of classical approaches to economics and decision theory and Savage’s Sure-Thing Principle is a fundamental element of it. It has been put forward that real-life situations exist, illustrated by the Allais and Ellsberg paradoxes, in which the Sure-Thing Principle is violated, and where also the expected utility hypothesis does not hold. ...

متن کامل

Can quantum decision theory explain the Ellsberg paradox?

We report the results of an experiment we performed to test the matching probabilities for the Ellsberg paradox predicted by the quantum decision model of al-Nowaihi and Dhami (2016). We find that the theoretical predictions of that model are in conformity with our experimental results. This supports the thesis that violations of classical (Kolmogorov) probability theory may not be due to irrat...

متن کامل

Modeling the Ellsberg Paradox by Argument Strength

We present a formal measure of argument strength, which combines the ideas that conclusions of strong arguments are (i) highly probable and (ii) their uncertainty is relatively precise. Likewise, arguments are weak when their conclusion probability is low or when it is highly imprecise. We show how the proposed measure provides a new model of the Ellsberg paradox. Moreover, we further substanti...

متن کامل

Ellsberg Meets Nash: the Ellsberg Task as a Game

In his PhD thesis, Ellsberg formulated strong experimental conditions for his proposed tests of subjective expected utility theory. Subjects should have no reason to consider the motives of the urn filler. Standard incentivized experiments do not meet these conditions. Instead of a one-person decision problem, the task can be perceived as a two-player game. One player chooses among the bets. Th...

متن کامل

Ambiguity aversion in a delay analogue of the Ellsberg Paradox

Decision makers are often ambiguity averse, preferring options with subjectively known probabilities to options with unknown probabilities. The Ellsberg paradox is the best-known example of this phenomenon. Ambiguity has generally been studied in the domain of risky choice, and many theories of ambiguity aversion deal with ambiguity only in this context. However, ambiguity aversion may occur in...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:
  • Management Science

دوره 62  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2016